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100 Million WiMAX Subscribers |
Maravedis
Predicts WiMAX Subscribers to Exceed 100 Million by 2014 as WiMAX and
LTE Converge upon 4G Technologies and Markets
Other Topics: WiMAX Test
Tools Demonstration, High-Speed fiber
Optic Network
Maravedis
February 4, 2008
Maravedis releases fifth edition of
“WiMAX, LTE and Broadband Wireless Worldwide Market Trends” - 2008-2014
Montreal, Canada -- Leading telecommunications market research and
analysis firm Maravedis (www.maravedis-bwa.com) today announced
publication of the fifth edition of its yearly report “WiMAX, LTE and
Broadband Wireless Worldwide Market Trends 2008-2014.” This
comprehensive report provides an in-depth analysis of broadband wireless
trends including applications, deployments, technology, regulation and
Intellectual Property Rights (IPR). |
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Maravedis
forecasts WiMAX subscribers to exceed 100 million by 2014. “WiMAX
chipsets will start to be embedded in laptops in the second half of
2008, into handheld devices in 2009, and into consumer electronics by
early 2010,” said Adlane Fellah, President and CEO of Maravedis and
co-author of the report. “This is definitely a key assumption, as
large-scale WiMAX deployments by companies such as BSNL and Sprint start
to materialize in 2008-2009 despite current challenges.”
On the technology side, the report confirms that both WiMAX and LTE are
converging upon 4G service capabilities, which include seamless
hand-over, Quality of Service (QoS), security, high-level network
architecture, user authentication and billing across similar but still
incompatible low-level interface networks.
According to Nokia and Ericsson, LTE may enter the market as early as
late 2009. However, LTE’s primary market, 3G operators, will be unlikely
to adopt LTE until 2012-2014. “While LTE appears to have the decisive
volume advantage, that lag between 3G evolution and the next generation
mobile network will greatly benefit WiMAX,” said Robert Syputa, Senior
Analyst at Maravedis and co-author of the report. “Furthermore, WiMAX
has the ‘Apple Macintosh 1984’ marketing advantage, which will
definitely have strong appeal to early adopters and those who will rebel
against the contrived nature of the cell phone.”
Delays in realizing WiMAX Forum Certified products based on IEEE
802.16e-2005 during 2007 didn’t slow infrastructure or device
manufacturers from introducing both traditional and innovative
solutions. “As predicted by Maravedis, more than 100 Mobile WiMAX
devices have been announced or made available commercially,” said Jeff
Orr, Senior Analyst at Maravedis and co-author of the report.
“Multi-band, multi-protocol devices along with mobile internet devices,
ultra-mobile personal computers, and personal navigation devices with
embedded WiMAX will be the first WiMAX Forum Certified devices, expected
during 2008.”
A Report That Evolves With The Market
This new edition includes a special analysis of eight strategic
countries that will decide the fate of WiMAX. A new forecasting model is
incorporated to distinguish between WiMAX active subscribers and devices
shipped as part of a “push” strategy for multi-mode WiMAX devices.
Highlights of the report include the following:
- The accumulated market size for combined demand
and supply of WiMAX equipment will reach $42 billion by 2014.
- There were over 1,650,000 BWA subscribers,
including 635,000 WiMAX subscribers, at the end of 2007.
- Motorola was the leader in BWA and WiMAX combined
equipment markets, with a 23% market share, followed by Alvarion at
18%.
- CPE shipments totaled US$644 million, while base
stations were valued at US$547 million, for a total BWA and WiMAX
market of US$1.2 billion in 2007.
- WiMAX Forum Certified (802.16-2004) equipment
market size reached US$172 million in 2007.
- Europe and Asia represented the largest BWA and
WiMAX market opportunities in 2007.
- Initial 802.16m proof-of-concept systems will
appear in early 2010, with certification of commercial systems
possibly as early as the first half of 2011.
- Opportunities exist in sub-1 GHz spectrum for
both WiMAX and LTE protocols. 700 MHz appears to be a common band of
interest in multiple geographies. Sub-1 GHz optimizes WiMAX’s
ability to compete in range and mobile service capabilities against
3GPP LTE.
- The mobile version of WiMAX (802.16e-2005) is a
tipping point for volume efficiencies that hasten the emergence of
802.16m as a 4G unified communications network that will challenge
cell phone volume dominance.
The report also provides trends in wireless
services: operator walled gardens are poised to fall in favor of
semi-open networks; experimentation is underway with unlimited data
plans; the ITU adds a new 3G interface and allocates 4G spectrum;
consumer electronics devices will overcome PC side-loading; and the FMC
hype continues. Download brochure
About Maravedis
Maravedis is a leading research and
analysis firm focusing on BWA technologies including WiMAX, LTE, 802.20
and Ultra Mobile Broadband, and Wireless Local Loop. Maravedis works
with service providers, vendors, regulators, and investors to produce a
sound market analysis based on hard primary data and an in-depth
understanding of technology, market, and regulatory trends. Learn more
at www.maravedis-bwa.com. |
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