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Senza Fili Consulting Market Report
Table of Contents

Fixed or mobile WiMAX? Forecasts and assessment for the transition from 802.16-2004 to 802.16e WiMAX

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Executive Summary

1          Fixed and mobile WiMAX: two technologies and two markets?

1.1       Why a mobile WiMAX?

1.2       802.16-2004 WiMAX: dead on arrival?

1.3       A transition to mobility through portability

1.4       Report roadmap

2          A comparison between 802.16-2004 and 802.16e WiMAX

2.1       The difference between 802.16 and WiMAX

2.2       Standardization efforts at the IEEE

2.2.1    The IEEE 802.16 standard

2.2.2    802.16-2004: the basis for WiMAX for fixed services

2.2.3    802.16e: the amendment that supports mobility

2.2.4    Handoffs and interworking

2.2.5    Further requirements for mobility not included in the IEEE standard

2.3       Technology overview

2.3.1    System and certification profiles

2.3.2    What is WiMAX? System profiles for 802.16-2004 and 802.16e WiMAX

2.3.3    OFDM

2.3.4    OFDMA and SOFDMA

2.3.5    Why isn't 802.16e WiMAX backwards-compatible with 802.16-2004 WiMAX?

2.3.6    Duplexing: TDD and FDD

2.3.7    Adaptive Modulation Coding (AMC)

2.3.8    Maximum and expected, real-life throughput and range

2.3.9    Reuse factor

2.3.10  Security

2.3.11  QoS

2.3.12  Multiple antenna technologies: STC, MIMO, and AAS

2.4       The WiMAX Forum

2.4.1    The role of the WiMAX Forum

2.4.2    The need for certification: isn't a standard enough?

2.4.3    The WiMAX Forum certification program

2.4.4    WiMAX certification profiles

2.4.5    WiMAX certification waves

2.5       WiBRO

2.6       Upgrade paths to portability and mobility

2.6.1    The need for a smooth transition

2.6.2    Different transition paths

2.6.3    Who needs to upgrade?

3          Competing technologies

3.1       DSL, cable modem and other fixed technologies

3.2       Wi-Fi

3.2.1    The public access hotspot market

3.2.2    The last mile market

3.3       3G technologies: EV-DO, WCDMA/HSDPA and TD-CDMA

3.3.1    Will WiMAX be faster than 3G?

3.3.2    .or will it be cheaper?

3.3.3    Friends or foes?

3.3.4    IP Wireless TD-CDMA

3.4       Qualcomm's FLASH-OFDM

3.5       Pre-WiMAX proprietary technologies

3.6       Where does WiMAX fit?


4          Business models for fixed and mobile services

4.1       Product timeline

4.2       Spectrum availability and regulation

4.2.1    Choosing a spectrum band

4.2.2    Licensed or license-exempt spectrum?

4.2.3    Worldwide spectrum availability

4.3       Services and applications

4.4       A facilities-based approach to last mile connectivity

4.5       Fixed, portable or mobile?

4.6       Business and residential market segments

4.7       Rural and metropolitan markets

4.8       Municipal networks

4.9       Developed and emerging markets


5          The vendors' perspective

5.1       Chipset manufacturers

5.1.1    Beceem

5.1.2    Fujitsu

5.1.3    Intel

5.1.4    picoChip

5.1.5    TeleCIS Wireless

5.1.6    SEQUANS Communications

5.1.7    Runcom

5.1.8    Wavesat

5.2       WiMAX vendors

5.2.1    Airspan

5.2.2    Alcatel

5.2.3    Alvarion

5.2.4    Aperto Networks

5.2.5    Motorola

5.2.6    Navini Networks

5.2.7    NextNet Wireless

5.2.8    Nortel

5.2.9    Proxim Wireless

5.2.10  Redline Communications

5.2.11  Samsung

5.2.12  Siemens

5.2.13  SOMA Networks

5.2.14  SkyPilot Networks

5.2.15  SR Telecom

6          Worldwide demand for 802.16-2004 and 802.16e WiMAX

6.1       Scope and methodology

6.2       Fixed and mobile broadband forecast

6.2.1    Fixed broadband

6.2.2    Mobile broadband

6.3       Global WiMAX forecast

6.3.1    Subscribers

6.3.2    Service revenues from data and VoIP

6.3.3    Equipment revenues

6.4       North America

6.4.1    United States

6.4.2    Canada

6.5       Latin America

6.5.1    Brazil

6.5.2    Mexico

6.5.3    Argentina

6.6       Western Europe

6.6.1    Germany

6.6.2    UK

6.6.3    France

6.6.4    Italy

6.6.5    Spain

6.7       Eastern Europe

6.8       Asia Pacific

6.8.1    China

6.8.2    Japan

6.8.3    Korea

6.8.4    India

6.8.5    Australia

6.9       Rest of the World

7          Conclusions

Annex: Acronyms

List of Figures


Figure 1. Timescale for 802.16-2004 and 802.16e WiMAX

Figure 2. Point-to-point and multipoint networks in different spectrum bands

Figure 3. System and certification profiles

Figure 4. Multipath environment

Figure 5. Single and multiple carrier transmission

Figure 6. OFDM and OFDMA with multiple access

Figure 7. Uplink in OFDM and OFDMA

Figure 8. Modulation schemes: QAM 64, QAM 16, QPSK

Figure 9. MIMO's performance improvement for Wi-Fi and 802.16e WiMAX

Figure 10. WiBRO timeline

Figure 11. Transition paths to 802.16e WiMAX

Figure 12. Competing technologies

Figure 13. Product availability and services timeline

Figure 14. Worldwide spectrum availability for WiMAX

Figure 15. WiMAX spectrum bands

Figure 16. Competitive landscape for chip vendors

Figure 18. Market focus of WiMAX vendors

Figure 20. Samsung WiBRO mobile phone and PDA

Figure 21. Forecast model for demand for fixed and mobile broadband

Figure 22. Fixed broadband forecast

22.1     Global fixed broadband subscribers by technology

22.2     Global fixed broadband subscribers by region

22.3     Global fixed BWA broadband subscribers by region

22.4     WiMAX market share of fixed BWA subscriptions

Figure 23. Mobile broadband forecast

23.1     Mobile broadband subscribers by device type

23.2     Mobile broadband subscribers by region  

23.3     Mobile broadband market share of broadband

23.4     Mobile WiMAX market share of mobile broadband

Figure 24. 802.16-2004 and 802.16e WiMAX global subscribers

Figure 25. WiMAX subscribers forecast

25.1     WiMAX subscribers by region

25.2     Fixed 802.16-2004 WiMAX subscribers by region

25.3     Fixed 802.16e WiMAX subscribers by region

25.4     Mobile 802.16e WiMAX subscribers by region

Figure 26. Market size and WiMAX penetration by country and region in 2010

26.1     Percentage of WiMAX global subscribers

26.2     Ratio of WiMAX to broadband subscribers

Figure 27. Global service revenues

27.1     VoIP and data service revenues

27.2     Data revenues by market segment

27.3     Residential, business and mobile ARPU

Figure 28. Global equipment revenues

28.1     Equipment revenues for CPEs and base stations

28.2     Equipment revenues by region

28.3     Indoor, outdoor, portable/mobile CPE sales

28.4     CPE and base station average selling price

Figure 29. USA data charts*

Figure 30. Canada data charts*

Figure 31. Latin America data charts*

Figure 32. Brazil data charts*

Figure 33. Mexico data charts*

Figure 34. Argentina data charts*

Figure 35. Western Europe data charts*

Figure 36. Germany data charts*

Figure 37. UK data charts*

Figure 38. France data charts*

Figure 39. Italy data charts*

Figure 40. Spain data charts*

Figure 41. Eastern Europe data charts*

Figure 42. Asia Pacific data charts*

Figure 43. China data charts*

Figure 44. Japan data charts*

Figure 45. Korea data charts*

Figure 46. India data charts*

Figure 47. Australia data charts*

Figure 48. Rest of the World data charts*


(*) For each market, charts include:

1. Fixed and mobile broadband subscribers

2. Fixed and mobile WiMAX subscribers

3. Data and VoIP service revenues

4. Data revenues by market segment

5. Residential, business and mobile ARPU

6. Equipment revenues



List of Tables


Table 1. A definition of fixed and mobile access

Table 2. 802.16-2004 and 802.16e WiMAX compared

Table 3. WiMAX terminology

Table 4. IEEE 802.16 and WiMAX

Table 5. Versions of the IEEE 802.16 standard

Table 6. 802.16-2004 and 802.16e WiMAX system profiles

Table 7. Number of sub-carriers in SOFDMA

Table 8. FDD and TDD

Table 9. Maximum throughput (Mbps) using different modulation schemes in 802.16-2004 WiMAX

Table 10. Range, throughput and users supported by one base station

Table 11. MIMO spectral efficiency and throughput

Table 12. WiMAX Forum Working Groups and their charters

Table 13. 802.16-2004 WiMAX Forum certification profiles

Table 14. WiMAX certification waves

Table 15. WiBRO specifications

Table 16. Competing technologies in different market segments

Table 17. WiMAX against DSL and cable modem

Table 18. 802.16e WiMAX, FLASH-OFDM and 3G: throughput

Table 19. 802.16e WiMAX, FLASH-OFDM and 3G: cell range and spectrum bands

Table 20. Licensed or license-exempt spectrum

Table 21. NextWeb and Covad: adopting a facilities-based approach

Table 22. The WiMAX opportunity for service providers

Table 23. Service operators trialing or committed to deploying WiMAX

Table 24. WiMAX (plus Wi-Fi) on trains: Nomad Digital and T-Mobile

Table 25. Business and residential market segments

Table 26. Telabria: addressing both the residential and business market

Table 27. Rural and metropolitan deployments

Table 28. Libera: using license-exempt spectrum in metropolitan areas

Table 29. Developed and emerging markets

Table 30. Ultravision: from wireless cable to wireless broadband

Table 31. Chipset developers' product roadmap and partnerships

Table 32. Airspan

Table 33. Alcatel

Table 34. Alvarion

Table 35. Aperto Networks

Table 36. Motorola

Table 37. Navini Networks

Table 38. NextNet Wireless

Table 39. Nortel

Table 40. Proxim Wireless

Table 41. Redline Communications

Table 42. Samsung

Table 43. Siemens

Table 44. SOMA Networks

Table 45. SkyPilot Networks

Table 46. SR Telecom

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